ESPN’s FPI predicts Big Ten order of finish for 2025

ESPN’s FPI is gearing up for the 2025 college football season, unveiling fresh projections for the entire year ahead. That includes updated looks at the College Football Playoff and the Big Ten hierarchy for this fall.

Coming out of the 2024 campaign, Oregon is still the top dog in the conference, crashing the party with a 13-0 regular season and undefeated B1G title. However, the Ducks are not among the top 2 projected teams entering the season per the FPI.

According to the FPI, the top contenders for the B1G Championship this fall are Ohio State and Penn State, with both programs receiving better than a 25% chance to win the league. Oregon is 3rd in the projected order of finish, but the Ducks fall just shy of a 20% chance to win the conference title for a 2nd straight year.

After that, the odds of winning the conference significantly drop, and the latest 2025 Big Ten Championship odds produced by BetMGM reflect that. Ohio State (+190) and Penn State (+240) lead the way with Oregon (+350) close behind before the odds dip, and fans can get in on those preseason odds through the Ohio betting apps.

On a national scale, the B1G frontrunners pale in comparison to the SEC’s elite, according to the FPI. Texas enters the 2025 season and a Week 1 rematch vs. Ohio State in the No. 1 spot on the FPI, and Georgia and Alabama follow in the No. 2 and No. 3 spots.

Ryan Day and his Buckeyes, the reigning national champs, are No. 4 in the country as the first B1G team on the list. Of the top 10 spots, 5 belong to SEC teams and only 3 to the B1G. Notre Dame, as an independent (No. 7), and Miami from the ACC (No. 9) are the non-SEC/B1G programs in the top 10.

Here is the full predicted order of finish in the B1G with projected percentages to win the conference:

• Ohio State — 40.3%
• Penn State — 25.1%
• Oregon — 19.1%
• Michigan — 6%
• USC — 4.2%
• Nebraska — 1.5%
• Indiana — 0.9%
• Washington — 0.8%
• Illinois — 0.6%
• Iowa — 0.6%
• Wisconsin — 0.4%
• Minnesota — 0.3%
• Maryland — 0.2%
• UCLA — 0.1%
• Michigan State — 0.1%
• Rutgers — 0.1%
• Northwestern — 0.0%
• Purdue — 0.0%